How to develop the hottest glass futures after bre

2022-08-01
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Glass futures broke through 2300 points and how to develop in the future

on April 27, glass futures hit a record high of 2322 yuan. After a short adjustment, this record has been refreshed almost every day in the past two weeks. The rise since mid January has continuously challenged the market's understanding of glass prices. Glass futures are definitely the "hot" in the domestic futures market. In the face of such high prices, many enterprises are still actively pushing up before the holiday. What is the source of confidence

at present, the continuous rise of glass prices is affected by the low inventory of manufacturers on the one hand. On the other hand, this year, the residual demand of terminal real estate is relatively thin, and the enthusiasm for replenishing inventory in the middle and lower reaches is high. In addition, the glass factory is difficult to generate a large number of warehouse receipts in such a low inventory state, which greatly reduces the restriction of the number of warehouse receipts on the price of glass futures

at present, the whole market trend is relatively strong, especially in the black and building materials sectors, and the current and current prices have risen to new highs. The rising price of spot raw materials has attracted the attention of the national level, but it still can not restrain the current rising trend of raw material prices. Glass is in a macro environment with a good atmosphere, and the price is naturally subject to a certain linkage effect

there is no obvious turning point in the spot price in the short term, and many glass enterprises still plan to continuously raise the spot price of glass. However, the May Day holiday market will face many uncertain factors. It is not recommended to over decompose the reading glass before and after the holiday, and the price will rise sharply

the inventory of glass enterprises last year has been at the lowest level in the past seven years since 2021, which undoubtedly provides sufficient impetus for glass factories to continuously raise prices. At present, the inventory of traders in Shahe area is about more than 3 million weight boxes. Comprehensive statistical data on the inventory of traders in the whole market can not be obtained, but the current market has different attitudes towards the inventory of traders in the middle and lower reaches

on the one hand, some people believe that the current continuous procurement and replenishment of inventory in the middle and lower reaches will inevitably lead to an accelerated decline in the inventory of current manufacturers, but most of the inventory is transferred from manufacturers to middle and lower reaches traders or terminals, and the social inventory is high. Once the price of the industry becomes loose or the downstream procurement slows down, a series of negative chain effects are likely to occur, and there is a probability that the glass period and current prices will fall sharply

on the other hand, there are also voices that traders and downstream increase their stock on the basis of continuous good demand, which in turn leads to the continuous decline of glass factory inventory, thus boosting the price mentality of manufacturers

assuming that the real estate demand is relatively weak this year and the delivery speed of the middle and lower reaches is relatively slow, the middle and lower reaches will face a series of risks, such as continuous replenishment, large capital occupation, and inventory expansion. Therefore, it will be difficult to continue the phenomenon of long-term continuous purchase without smooth delivery. At present, this phenomenon has not been confirmed. The middle and lower reaches are still replenishing the stock, and the manufacturers are still raising prices and removing the stock. It can be inferred from the side that the demand is not weak, so there is no room for a sharp decline in the glass market

according to the latest data released by the National Bureau of statistics, China's flat glass output in March was 85.121 million weight boxes, an increase of 9.4% year-on-year. China's monthly output of flat glass totaled 247.72 million weight boxes, an increase of 8.6% year-on-year. China's output of tempered glass in March was 53.762 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 27.6%. China's monthly output of tempered glass totaled 142.918 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 35.0%. The output of laminated glass in China in March was 11.067 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 28.2%. China's monthly laminated glass output totaled 29.233 million square meters, an increase of 35.2% year-on-year. China's insulating glass output in March was 11.555 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%. China's monthly output of insulating glass totaled 33.234 million square meters, an increase of 31.0% year-on-year. Therefore, it is misleading to say that the real estate terminal has not been fully started. This year is the continuation of the peak demand for real estate completion, and the demand should be optimistic

in the medium and long term, there is strong support for the construction and sales level of terminal real estate this year, which will lay the foundation for no large-scale collapse of demand this year. In the second half of the year, there is still the peak season expectation of "golden nine silver ten". In the long run, however, the demand may weaken and adjust periodically, and there is also the probability of overdraft peak season expectation of the current market. The time cycle is lengthened again. The year-on-year negative growth of the completed area of real estate has lasted for about 3 years, which is likely to lay a large risk factor for the weakening of the terminal demand for real estate in the next few years

as the May Day holiday approaches, the glass market faces many risks. From a long-term perspective, the current market trading logic is still based on the logic of low manufacturer inventory, good demand expectation and small number of glass warehouse receipts. The short-term glass futures price is still in the upward channel. The probability of continuing to rise after the May Day holiday is not ruled out

however, with the rising price of glass futures, the risk is also accumulating

according to the statistics of the pilot industry in which and coal were selected as de capacity industries, there are 5 new ignition production lines planned in the second quarter, and about 7~8 production lines planned to resume production. Among them, 2~3 have been ignited in April, which means that the glass production capacity will increase greatly from may to June, and the glass production will reach a high point from June to July. At that time, the supply pressure will increase significantly, and the glass futures price will also bear a large callback pressure

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