Import and export analysis of the hottest machiner

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Analysis of import and export of machinery industry and outlook for 2010

I. Analysis of import and export of machinery industry from January to November 2009

according to customs statistics, the import and export of machinery industry this month amounted to US $335.808 billion, a decrease of 16.77% over the same period of last year (hereinafter referred to as year-on-year). Among them, the import was US $160.707 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.42% (the import in 2008 increased by 17.8% year-on-year); Exports amounted to 175.101 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 21.86% (exports in 2008 increased by 28.18% year-on-year). The import and export surplus was US $14.394 billion, a decrease of US $30.277 billion over the same period of the previous year, which was US $44.671 billion (the above are based on the statistical scope of China Machinery Industry Federation, the same below)

the imports of various industries in the machinery industry, except for agricultural machinery and cultural office equipment, which increased year-on-year, fell in all other industries. Among them, packaging food machinery and machine tools, which fell by more than 20% year-on-year, fell by 25.8% and 23.71% respectively; The exports of all industries fell in an all-round way, of which the three industries of construction machinery, automobile and machine tool decreased significantly year-on-year, with a decrease of 40.62%, 33.49% and 31.05% respectively

exports to the four major trading partners fell in an all-round way, with the largest decline to the EU, a year-on-year decrease of 29.28%; The decline in ASEAN was the smallest, with a year-on-year decrease of 15.26%. Exports to the United States fell by 20.36%, and exports to Japan fell by 24.24%. Exports to other countries, except Norway, India, Myanmar and a few other countries, generally declined. Among them, Russia (-59.25%), Ukraine (-75.64%) and Belarus (-50.84%) decreased by more than 50%

among the main products exported, the year-on-year growth includes: combine harvesters, geodetic instruments, gas separation equipment, conveying handling machines (4) specimen installation machinery, metal rolling mills and parts, metal smelting equipment, gas turbines, water turbines, high and medium voltage switches. The export of most products decreased by more than 50%, mainly including loaders, excavators, engineering cranes, graders, forklifts, mine hoisting equipment, cars, four-wheel drive light off-road vehicles, passenger cars, etc

since the beginning of this year, the export volume of the whole industry in the first eight months has been mostly between us $15billion and US $16billion. The export volume began to increase month by month in September and US $17.886 billion in November, an increase of 4.73% over October, and began to improve

compared with the same period of last year, the cumulative export amount of the whole industry each month increased month by month in the first eight months, and the decline of export amount began to decrease month by month from September. From January to August, exports fell by 24.71% year-on-year, and from January to November, exports fell by 21.86% year-on-year, which also began to improve

due to the impact of the international financial crisis, the contraction of external demand is very large, which is quite different from China's domestic demand in structure. Relying on expanding domestic demand in the short term, it is difficult to comprehensively replace or make up for the demand gap caused by the contraction of external demand. Therefore, the export situation is still grim

II. Outlook on the import and export situation of the machinery industry in 2010

according to the International Monetary Fund, the world economy will gradually recover slowly in 2010. However, this is based on the very loose monetary policy and government intervention support, and the basis of demand expansion is not sustainable and stable. In terms of the export of machinery products, the shrinking demand in the main export markets of China's machinery products such as the European Union, the United States and Japan will continue for some time, and the recovery of China's export trade is still lack of strong support. Therefore, the recovery speed of China's export trade of machinery products will also be affected

judging from the Canton Fair this autumn, there is also some warmth in the international market demand. However, due to the insufficient momentum of world economic recovery, many deep-seated contradictions and problems still need to be solved. At the same time, the appreciation pressure of RMB is expressed as a percentage of the gauge; In the case of economic downturn, trade protectionism in various countries will also continue to occur. These will have an impact on China's exports

based on the above situation, the import and export of machinery industry in 2010 will generally show a rising and falling trend. On the one hand, the economic situation of developed economies such as Europe, the United States and Japan has begun to slowly improve, and Chinese enterprises have made achievements in exploring other potential markets (such as India, ASEAN, etc.), and the demand will increase; On the other hand, due to the impact of the international financial crisis, the export base of the machinery industry in 2009 was low. Therefore, compared with 2009, the year-on-year growth rate of exports in 2010 is expected to change from negative growth in 2009 to positive growth in 2010. However, there are still many difficulties for exports to reach or exceed the level of 2008, depending on domestic and foreign demand and the effect of China's policies and measures. 3、 Some countermeasures and suggestions

1. Continue to implement the policies of "stabilizing external demand and promoting exports"

continue to implement a variety of policies and measures, including fiscal and taxation, finance, trade facilitation and so on. In response to the impact of the international financial crisis, the Chinese government has adopted a number of policies to strengthen macro-control, and the national fixed asset investment has increased rapidly; Formulate policies and measures to further support the development of equipment manufacturing and automobile industry, and encourage technological transformation of enterprises; Comprehensively implement the transformation reform of value-added tax; Expand domestic consumption to stimulate domestic demand. At the same time, the duty-free and value-added tax exemption policies for imported equipment of a large number of domestic investment projects have been abolished, and the value-added tax exemption policies for imported equipment of all foreign-funded enterprises have been abolished. These policies are conducive to the independent innovation of Chinese enterprises and enhance the competitiveness of domestic equipment

for the export of machinery industry: first, we should maintain and implement the export tax rebate policy, timely refund and institutionalize it; Second, we should strengthen export credit support. For the enterprises of developing countries that have the ability to repay the import of China's machinery products, China's relevant financial institutions should provide RMB export credit to expand the proportion of export credit of machinery products in general trade; Third, we will improve the export credit insurance system and open commercial insurance companies to engage in the export credit insurance business of mechanical products

for the above policies and measures, relevant machinery enterprises should fully grasp and actively strive for the support of relevant parties to promote the development of enterprise production and foreign trade

2. Vigorously optimize the structure of export products and change the development mode of foreign trade

at present, many enterprises in the machinery industry are facing a reduction in orders and sales, and their production is facing many problems and difficulties. Therefore, on the one hand, we should constantly improve the quality of labor-intensive products with advantages, consolidate and expand the international market share; On the other hand, we must transform and upgrade, constantly optimize the structure of export products, gradually change the current situation in which low value-added and low technology content products dominate, increase the development and research of high-tech and high value-added products, develop products with independent intellectual property rights, pay attention to the continuous improvement and improvement of product technical standards, and strive to move closer to and transform to international standards or international advanced technical standards, Improve international competitiveness

from January to November 2009, the export volume of processing trade in the machinery industry was 73.318 billion US dollars, accounting for 41.87% of the export of the whole industry, accounting for a large proportion. We should gradually transform some processing trade into general trade export; Gradually transform some OEM products into independent brand exports

on November 25th, 2009, the State Council decided that by 2020, China's carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be reduced by 40% - 45% compared with 2005, which will be incorporated into the national medium and long-term plan as a binding indicator. The goal of signing long-term cooperation contracts requires the machinery industry to vigorously adjust the product structure, develop energy-saving products, eliminate backward production capacity, develop new energy vehicles, and reduce the export of high energy consuming products

3. Strive to explore potential markets and actively expand exports to ASEAN

at present, the demand of developed economies such as the European Union, the United States and Japan is declining. We must diversify to explore other potential markets, such as the Middle East, Central Asia, Latin America, Africa, Eastern Europe, India, Brazil, Russia, and strive to make up for the lost market share in the European Union, the United States and other markets

in recent years, the bilateral trade between China's machinery products and emerging economies such as India, Brazil and Russia (that is, the other three countries in the BRICs except China) has developed rapidly, and the export of China's machinery products has generally increased rapidly in recent years. In 2009, the export of China's machinery products to India reached US $7.818 billion, continuing to maintain the momentum of growth

China and 10 ASEAN countries, Chile, Singapore and Peru have signed free trade agreements respectively, and China's machinery exports will benefit from tax reduction arrangements

we should make full use of the preferential tariff reductions and exemptions with the above-mentioned countries to expand exports. ASEAN in particular has witnessed rapid development of bilateral trade in recent years. According to the agreement, China and the six ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Brunei) will reduce import tariffs on more than 90% of their products to zero from January 1, 2010, and establish a free trade zone. China has competitive advantages in power generation equipment, power transmission and transformation equipment, engineering machinery, automobiles and parts, machine tools, agricultural machinery, general machinery, etc., and we should actively strive to expand exports

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