Too many bad factors may cause the national waste

2022-07-25
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There are too many negative factors, which may cause the country and the industry to build a better resource and technology sharing pipeline, etc. waste diving again

release date: Source: packaging zone editor: Yu Jia browsing times: 1767 copyright and disclaimer

core tip: for the paper packaging industry chain, the ups and downs of 2017 will be over, but the paper packaging industry chain in 2018 is doomed to be difficult to stabilize! Because, as long as environmental protection stops production and limits production, production capacity is concentrated in large factories, supply and demand are unbalanced, exchange rate fluctuations and other factors exist, paper prices cannot be stabilized

[China Packaging News] for the paper packaging industry chain, the ups and downs of 2017 are about to turn over, but the paper packaging industry chain in 2018 is destined to be difficult to stabilize! Because, as long as environmental protection stops production and limits production, production capacity is concentrated in large factories, supply and demand are unbalanced, exchange rate fluctuations and other factors exist, paper prices cannot be stabilized

various signs indicate that the paper packaging industry chain is likely to start a new 2018 with the sharp decline of waste paper due to the impact of the overstock of base paper inventory, the shutdown of paper mills and the arrival of the off-season. This wave of national waste adjustment may evolve into a new year's pig killing mode of paper mills against waste paper merchants. Next, there may be a long-term downward adjustment of packaging paper

according to the waste paper market sorted out by 99 waste paper home, the national waste paper has been reduced by yuan/ton in the past week! However, if we look back on the extreme market of waste paper in 2017, which was recalled from 1700 yuan to 600 yuan/ton, and in October 2017, the waste paper suddenly fell from 3000 yuan to 1500 yuan/ton, the inference that waste paper has staged another big dive or even a flash collapse is easy to hold

serious constraints on sustainable development

in Bao's view, the main factors that may lead to the collapse of national waste are:

1) insufficient demand leads to the lack of confidence in the paper mill

the fourth quarter of 2017 was the lightest quarter in history, which also led to a sharp decline in the demand for packaging paper. The coming months are the traditional off-season. The paper mills are facing the risk of overstocking inventory, and they are seriously lack of confidence in the accumulation of national waste

2) the expectation of falling paper price is strengthened, which makes the waste paper market bearish

generally, only when the base paper rises sharply, the market demand for waste paper and BASF's production base in Asia is increased in Japan, will the waste paper rise. On the contrary, the paper mill will take advantage of the trend to lower the waste paper price. At present, the market has basically entered the off-season, the packaging paper market is facing a passive situation of oversupply, and the continued decline of paper prices is a foregone conclusion. Therefore, the possibility of another sharp decline in national waste is also greatly increased

3) the shutdown of the paper mill during the Spring Festival reduces the demand for waste paper

recently, several domestic paper giants have released the Spring Festival shutdown plan, which means that the paper mill is not in a hurry to eat a lot of waste paper, which also gives the paper mill an excellent opportunity to operate

4) the stock of waste paper market is too large

according to various information, there is no shortage or even surplus of waste paper in the market at present. In the past year, although the import volume of waste paper fell slightly, the price of domestic waste paper exploded, resulting in a significant increase in waste paper recycling, completely covering the reduction of imported waste paper. However, in terms of demand, the demand for national waste decreased significantly with the decline in the demand for packaging paper. In the first half of 2017, the base paper generally increased by 40%, but the output value of packaging and printing only increased by 6%. In the first half of 2017, nine dragons sold hundreds of thousands of tons of base paper away from the gate in the second half of the year. In December, the secondary factory continued to reduce its inventory with the help of the price rise of the paper factory, which can prove that the demand for waste paper is declining. Based on the above two aspects, the amount of national waste on the market at present must be very large

5) reserve low-cost raw materials for new papermaking capacity

after the Spring Festival, nine dragons, Shanying, Liwen and other red industry giants will have a large number of new paper production capacity put into operation. Therefore, if there is a wave of big price reduction of national waste paper, it will help these paper giants with sufficient capital to accumulate a large number of low-cost National waste

6) flash collapse is the most beneficial to the paper mill

according to the previous national waste flash collapse market, paper mills take full advantage of their strong position and the panic of waste paper sellers to sell down but not up, and usually adopt the method of sudden and crazy decline to force out a large number of low-cost waste paper. After a large number of low absorption, the price of national waste will be quickly raised to block the expectation of base paper price reduction of downstream manufacturers. In this way, it can ensure the low level of papermaking raw materials and maintain the original high paper price, which can be described as killing two birds with one stone

at the beginning of 2018, whether the paper mill will cut the wool of waste paper dealers again in a flash, or even directly start the model of killing new year pigs, the answer will be revealed soon. Is everybody ready

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